My esteemed colleague Todd VanDerWerff and I are both movie fans, so we're taking a stab at guessing who's going to take home Oscars at Sunday's Academy Awards. Tell us if we're on target, or completely off-base.
Best Picture
Wood: “There Will Be Blood.” I was going to guess “Atonement,” since it seems like the type of lush epic that features pretty people and that the Academy likes to reward. But I think there’s a bit of an “Atonement” backlash (like “The English Patient” had eventually). Also, “There Will Be Blood” features the incredible man-vs.-man and man-vs.-himself bombast that contributes to a movie that will last.
VanDerWerff: I think “No Country for Old Men” has won too many other big prizes (from critics’ awards to Hollywood guild awards) to lose. If it does, I could see feel-good choice “Juno” or straightforward legal thriller “Michael Clayton” pulling it off, but I’ll stick with “No Country” for now.
Best Director
Wood: “No Country for Old Men.” Isn’t it about time the Coen brothers won for best director? Nothing that they put on the screen is ever an accident, but they make film-making seem so effortless, I think people forget how good they actually are. Here’s a challenge: Watch “ Fargo ,” then “Blood Simple,” then “No Country” and tell me how the academy could deny Joel and Ethan Coen this Oscar.
VanDerWerff: I completely agree. After finally awarding Martin Scorsese last year, the Academy gets to cross another great director (er, directing team) off the list by awarding the Coens. If there’s a dark horse (unlikely), it’s probably either “There Will Be Blood’s” Paul Thomas Anderson or “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly’s” Julian Schnabel.
Best Actor
Wood: Viggo Mortensen, for “Eastern Promises.” I don’t envy voters having to make a decision in this category. After all, you have three chameleons, a veteran workhorse (Tommy Lee Jones) and this generation’s answer to suave (George Clooney). It’s one of the strongest categories in years. But I’m going to give the win to Mortensen ... mainly through the process of elimination. And because he hasn’t won an Oscar yet. And because of the fight scene in the steam room.
VanDerWerff: While I was … unswayed by that fight scene, I’d probably vote for Mortensen in this category too. Unfortunately, the Academy has yet to give me a ballot. I imagine they’ll go with the controlled volcanic eruption that was Daniel Day-Lewis’ work in “There Will Be Blood” if only for the baptism scene alone.
Best Actress
Wood: Julie Christie, for “Away From Her.” This is a strong category as well. I think academy voters will reward Christie not only for a great performance, but also for being so vital in her 60s. Her portrayal of a woman with Alzheimer’s disease will probably touch a lot of voters who are dealing with older parents.
VanDerWerff: Again, I agree. Christie is the one to beat. Ellen Page certainly has momentum on her side for being in surprise hit “Juno,” but the Academy has traditionally been shy about rewarding comedic performances, so I don’t think they’ll suddenly start tonight.
Best Supporting Actor
Wood: Hal Holbrook, for “Into the Wild.” Is it wrong of me to want him to win simply because I love “The Fog” so much? Don’t stone me all at once. I also like “Creepshow.” OK, OK, seriously, he was the heart and soul of this movie, and his performance helped make the movie have a lasting impression.
VanDerWerff: Well, “The Fog” DOES have ghost pirates. While the supporting categories are usually the ones most ripe for an upset, however, I’m going to go with Javier Bardem in “No Country,” who’s won just about every other award under the sun, sadly to the detriment of Casey Affleck’s excellent work in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” who at least got a “Thanks for playing!” nomination.
Best Supporting Actress
Wood: Amy Ryan, for “Gone Baby Gone.” THIS ITEM CONTAINS SPOILERS: The supporting actress Oscar is usually the ingenue award, which makes it perfect for Ryan, who has been acting for years, but is just now getting recognition. That she turned in such a layered performance of an ultimately unforgivable character proves she is worthy of the Oscar.
VanDerWerff: This is the only category without a clear frontrunner, so my educated guess resides with Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton,” since there’s no chance that movie will win elsewhere, and it seems like something the older members of the Academy would love. But, really, pointing randomly at one of the nominees will probably be just as accurate.
Best Animated Feature
Wood: “Ratatouille.” I know it takes a lot to get over the idea of rats cooking. I know it begs belief that a French country mouse would speak like Patton Oswalt. But Brad Bird’s charming movie ultimately wins over any and all naysayers. Plus, it’s technically beautiful and a win here would give Bird a nice twin for his trophy for “The Incredibles.”
VanDerWerff: What? Rats don’t do YOUR cooking? Clearly, I live in the wrong apartment complex. Other than that, I, also, don’t think “Ratatouille” can lose this, even with the well-regarded “ Persepolis ” there as a potential spoiler.
Posted by Kate Wood at 6:14 PM, February 22
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